toy rankings simulator

A deterministic sandbox with 50 synthetic riders across 12 events. Use the controls to feel how ranking-tuning levers change uncertainty, volatility handling, and the final displayed score.

tuning controls

sigma 15.906

Learning speed: higher sigma reacts faster.

tau 0.641

Learning speed: tau controls background drift.

beta 8.960

Stability vs upside: higher beta smooths swings.

z 4.504

Stability vs upside: higher z penalizes uncertainty more.

target 26.87

Display baseline only — shifts shown rating without changing race outcomes.

inactivity years 3

Inactivity behavior: years before uncertainty growth fully applies.

inactivity cap 2.33

Inactivity behavior: max uncertainty multiplier during long breaks.

riders: 50 events: 12 #1: New Town (-16.33)

rank	description	years active	events	wins	podiums	score	sigma	mu
1	Elite Variable	2011–2014	0	0	0	-16.33	15.91	28.45
2	Elite Stable	2019–2022		0	0	-17.46	16.28	29.00
3	Elite Active	2012–2015	0	0	0	-19.85	15.91	24.92
4	Advanced Active	2016–2019		0	0	-21.07	16.65	27.06
5	Advanced Selective	2016–2023	0	0	0	-22.31	15.91	22.46
6	Advanced Active	2011–2014	0	0	0	-22.41	15.91	22.37
7	Advanced Stable	2013–2017	0	0	0	-25.37	15.91	19.40
8	Intermediate Active	2012–2018	0	0	0	-30.40	15.91	14.38
9	Developing Selective	2014–2018	0	0	0	-35.26	15.91	9.51
10	Developing Active	2015–2019		0	0	-43.78	16.65	4.36
11	Elite Stable	2017–2020		2	4	-47.05	24.12	34.72
12	Intermediate Variable	2021–2026		0	0	-60.54	23.55	18.68
13	Intermediate Variable	2014–2020		0	0	-63.40	23.88	17.28
14	Elite Variable	2020–2022		4	6	-65.83	29.03	38.08
15	Elite Active	2016–2021		0	1	-70.91	28.87	32.27
16	Elite Variable	2021–2024		3	5	-78.70	31.81	37.70
17	Elite Variable	2021–2026		1	4	-80.50	31.86	36.13
18	Elite Variable	2021–2026		2	4	-81.17	31.97	35.95
19	Advanced Variable	2012–2024		0	0	-84.10	30.45	26.20
20	Advanced Variable	2021–2026		0	3	-84.60	32.13	33.23